Measuring an offline campaign without direct exposure data
Context
An airport out-of-home campaign was intended to prompt existing users to record upcoming travel. Individual ad exposure was not observable and a randomised control group was unavailable.
What I did
- Built a transparent exposure proxy from airport-area app activity followed by activity abroad, while excluding local residents and nearby overland destinations.
- Defined pre-campaign and campaign windows and compared likely exposed users with a non-airport control population across multiple years.
- Separated reach from conversion and segmented users by tenure and prior engagement to test whether changes were behavioural or compositional.
- Ran sensitivity checks with alternative attribution windows, an excluded pull-forward period, other airports, and reweighted user mixes.